While we enjoy our stretches of sunshine and dry weather, this is the time of year when we often see wildfires break out.
Generally, Central Florida’s wildfire season runs from January into May, with it peaking in March and April.
These fires typically happen during the late winter and spring months thanks to what we refer to as “dry season”.
Mid-October through late-May is climatologically the time of the year that we see less rain and feel lower humidity.
Why Spring is Our Dry Season
We rely on cold fronts during this time of the year to bring us rain.
This dry season brought us many cold fronts. However, the fronts lacked meaningful rain and the rainfall deficits continue to grow.
This winter and early spring are under the influence of La Niña. Typically, La Niña brings drier and warmer than average conditions to Florida.
December and January had several chilly bouts of weather while February finished much warmer than average. March has been a mixed month of warmer than normal temperatures and a few chilly spells.
However, to close out the month, temperatures are finishing in the 90s for parts of Central Florida, with an extremely dry pattern persisting due to a big ridge of high pressure.
Hotter temperatures combined with the rain becoming even more sparse could elevate the fire danger heading into April and May.
Past Big Fire Seasons
You may remember back in 1998 when thousands of fires broke out across the region. There were more than 2,000 fires across the state from mid-May through July before the rainy season kicked in.
That year also featured the latest start to a rainy season on record in Central Florida. Wet season was not declared until early July.
The average start date to rainy season in Central Florida is May 27.
About half a million acres of land burned in total during in 1998 and damage costs exceeded a billion dollars. Abnormally dry conditions and low relative humidity fueled those flames.
You may also remember back to 2017 when several wildfires broke out across the state. That was also another year under the influence of La Niña and drier conditions.
How Could This Year Stack Up?
Many variables that play into fire weather and no year or La Niña event are the same.
However, if Central Florida continues to heat up and stay drier than average through the remainder of spring before rainy season begins, we may see wildfires flare up.