Tropical Storm Nicholas forms in the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday morning.
Nicholas has sustained winds of 40 mph and is forecast to intensify further over the next couple of days.
The current forecast takes Nicholas north, followed by a northeast track by mid-week. As it curves, it’ll slow down over East Texas or western Louisiana.
In Texas, a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from the mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Aransas. A Tropical Storm Watch extends north to High Island. A Storm Surge Watch is also in effect from the mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island.
The storm will drop heavy rain across parts of Texas and Louisiana. Rainfall near the coast over the next several days may total at least six inches, leading to areas of flooding. Rainfall amounts will be less farther from the coast.
The spaghetti models suggest the center of the storm will remain over the western Gulf of Mexico through mid-week, then straddle the Texas coast.
Spaghetti models or plots show a series of individual computer forecast models together on one map. They are useful to give insight into whether multiple models are in agreement or not on the path of the storm but they do not address the storm’s forecast intensity, winds, flooding and storm surge potential or other data. Tap here for more details on to best use these models.
Other tropics
We’re also watching four areas for development in the eastern Atlantic over the coming days. We have more on those here.
The peak of hurricane season is here
The average peak of hurricane season is here. See where storms typically form and move in September.
Not every storm will make landfall, but remember, it only takes one to make the Atlantic season a bad one.