Weather

Tropical Storm Karl expected to strengthen slightly

Tropical Storm Karl formed in the southwest Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, Oct. 11. While some strengthening is expected over the next day or so, Karl will likely stay a tropical storm before it moves back over the coast of Mexico later this week.


What You Need To Know

  • Karl became a tropical storm on Oct. 11
  • It could strengthen a bit as it meanders in the southwestern Gulf
  • It will bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to Mexico starting on Thursday

Since becoming a tropical storm, Karl has maintained its strength, producing maximum sustained winds of 40 mph and is slowly moving north-northwest in the Bay of Campeche.

Karl will continue to drift toward the north-northwest today, but is expected to make a sharp 180-degree turn toward the west, then south-southwest overnight, where it will eventually make landfall along the coast of Mexico on Friday night or early Saturday morning.

Conditions will remain favorable over the next day or so, which could allow it to strengthen slightly during that time. Although it will likely remain a tropical storm. After that, Karl will weaken, especially once it moves over land later this week.

Regardless, heavy rainfall could produce flash flooding in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and in the southern Sierra Madre Oriental mountains and adjacent coastal areas with mudslides in higher terrains.

Tropical storm conditions will begin in Mexico starting Thursday, where Tropical Storm Watches are in effect.

In any case, Karl is not expected to impact the U.S., as it will remain embedded in a high pressure system, keeping it south.

Spaghetti models or plots show a series of individual computer forecast models together on one map. They are useful to give insight into whether multiple models are in agreement on the path of the storm but they do not address the storm’s forecast intensity, winds, flooding and storm surge potential or other data. Tap here for more details on how to best use these models.

See how the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season has gone so far.

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