Tropical Storm Fred formed south of Puerto Rico in the Caribbean late Tuesday.
This system has winds of 40 mph and is expected to maintain tropical storm status as it moves over Hispaniola Wednesday
Fred will continue to bring heavy rain and gusty wind to Puerto Rico Wednesday morning.
The system is expected to skirt the coasts of Hispaniola and Cuba late Wednesday through Friday.
If the current track holds, southern Florida will feel impacts early Saturday, late Saturday and into Sunday for Central Florida, and the Panhandle by Sunday night.
There’s still uncertainty in the exact track and intensity. Dry air, mountainous terrain, and wind shear may help to keep Fred weak. If that happens, the track will be more to the west. If it is able to strengthen, the turn to the west-northwest will be sooner.
Spaghetti models also indicate a general west-northwest movement toward the Gulf of Mexico as we approach the weekend.
Spaghetti models or plots show a series of individual computer forecast models together on one map. They are useful to give insight into whether multiple models are in agreement or not on the path of the storm but they do not address the storm’s forecast intensity, winds, flooding and storm surge potential or other data. Tap here for more details on to best use these models.
Tropical Advisories
The National Hurricane Center has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands, and the east coast of the Dominican Republic. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the northern side of the Dominican Republic, the northern side of Haiti, Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas.
It’s important to always stay prepared as we head through the next few months. Although it’s likely we won’t see a record-breaking season like last year, we still expect an above-average one. Remember, it only takes one storm to make it a devastating season.