Tropical Storm Bonnie forms in the southwestern Caribbean

Potential Tropical Storm Two has finally become Tropical Storm Bonnie, the second named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season.

Bonnie is cruising toward the west at about 20 mph. Thunderstorm activity pick up last night, and it’s moving into an area of warm water and low wind shear. These all favor development before it makes landfall in Central America this evening or early tonight.

It’ll cross Central America over the weekend, then emerge in the Pacific. It’s forecast to become a hurricane there early next week.

Tropical Storm Warnings and Hurricane Watches are in effect along the east coast of Nicaragua and Costa Rica, with Tropical Storm Watches in effect along the western coast.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two will stay far enough south to not have a direct impact on the U.S.

There’s strong agreement among computer models that it will make landfall in the area of Costa Rica and Nicaragua, then cross land and continue into the Pacific.

Spaghetti models or plots show a series of individual computer forecast models together on one map. They are useful to give insight into whether multiple models agree on the path of the storm, but they do not address the storm’s forecast intensity, winds, flooding and storm surge potential or other data. Tap here for more details on how to best use these models.

Bonnie is an unusual storm, since most don’t form in the western Caribbean this time of year.

One other disturbances in the Atlantic basin has a low chance of development within the next five days.

See how the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season has gone so far.