The always tricky fireworks forecast

One of the biggest questions we get every July 4th is, will the fireworks be delayed? The answer — well, it’s complicated.

We start with why it’s so hard to forecast.

During the rainy season in Florida, a ridge of high pressure develops in the Atlantic. This ridge doesn’t allow cold fronts to enter central Florida, resulting in the pesky high humidity the region is known for.

With cold fronts out of the picture, the lifting mechanism for rain and storms are daily sea breezes. These wind shifts develop during the day and push inland from both the Gulf and Atlantic coasts.

The sea breezes “lift” the atmosphere, producing rain and storms.

Our weather pattern currently is of a westerly flow. This means the west coast sea breeze is a bit more dominant and produces the bulk of the showers and storms.

But as the storms march inland, things change. Boundaries inside the storms begin to develop, sometimes overriding the sea breeze itself.

And these boundaries can go in any direction. The boundaries often move in the opposite direction of the storm, allowing rain and storms to “spread out” over an area.

Unfortunately, this often happens in the mid-evening hours, right when many fireworks shows are starting.

So this year, who has the best chance for dry and storm-free conditions? Western areas.

With the westerly flow, the highest chance for rain and storms will be along and east of I-4 during fireworks time.

This means it may be harder for coastal areas to get the fireworks off at the scheduled start time.

But this doesn’t mean it can’t storm in western areas! Westerly flows sometimes drag storms from the Gulf into the I-75 corridor.

Bottom line — bring your umbrella again this year to your local display, and be prepared for a possible delay in eastern areas.

I hope everyone has a safe and happy July 4th!