Weather

NOAA predicts an above-average Atlantic season

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its hurricane outlook for the 2021 Atlantic season. It predicts an above-average season.


What You Need To Know

  • Forecasters predict a 60% chance of an above-average season
  • They say we could see 13-20 named storms
  • The average number of named storms during a season is 14
  • Experts do not anticipate the historic level of storm activity seen in 2020

NOAA released its first seasonal outlook Thursday, calling for 13-20 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes and 3-5 major hurricanes in the Atlantic.

The average is 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.

Forecasters at Colorado State University released their prediction last month, which also calls for an above-average season.

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are currently in the neutral phase, with the possibility of the return of La Niña later in the hurricane season.

“ENSO-neutral and La Niña support the conditions associated with the ongoing high-activity era,” said Matthew Rosencrans, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

“Predicted warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds, and an enhanced west African monsoon will likely be factors in this year’s overall activity.”

Prepare before the season starts

The official season runs from June 1 to November 30.

Even though forecasters don’t predict a record-breaking season like last year, it’s always best to be prepared before a storm hits.

The prediction doesn’t mean every storm will make landfall. But remember, it only takes one storm to devastate a community.

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