How rare was Hurricane Nicole?

With Hurricane Nicole in our recent memory, it begs the question: was it really a rarity? Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30 for a reason.

Hurricane Nicole formed from a non-tropical low and eventually become a subtropical storm, which means it had some tropical and some non-tropical characteristics. You may recall that Nicole’s wind field of tropical storm force winds extended more than 500 miles from the center of the storm. 

This wasn’t because Nicole was a big storm, rather, it was close to a large area of high pressure over the Eastern United States. The pressure gradient, or short distance between high and low pressure, is what leads to higher winds.

The closer to each other high and low pressure are, the stronger the winds are. As a result, with Nicole’s low pressure and an expansive high pressure centered about 700 miles away, the wind speed north of Nicole was very strong.

Nicole strengthened to a high end tropical storm with maximum sustained winds near 70 mph as it approached the northern Bahamas. The National Hurricane Center upgraded Nicole to a hurricane a few hours before landfall, suggesting that sustained winds had reached 75 mph.

This made Nicole a “landfalling November Hurricane” in Florida. With that said, not a single marine observation or coastal observation reported and sustained winds to hurricane strength.

The highest observed sustained wind during Nicole was 64 mph off the Florida East Coast, about 150 miles north of the center. There were some gusts to 70 to 75 mph along the coast in Brevard County.

Florida landfalling hurricanes in November are fairly rare, as the last one was Hurricane Kate in 1985, and the one before that was in the 1935. But, there have been plenty of November storms that ended up striking the Florida Coast as strong tropical storms.

Whether Nicole was a hurricane or a tropical storm is irrelevant as it still caused some significant coastal damage on the East Coast of Florida just a few weeks after Hurricane Ian crossed the state. So, Nicole’s impacts are certainly noteworthy.

But, it is important to remember that hurricane season in the Atlantic basin has always been from June 1 through the end of November, as late season storms have always formed and will continue to do so in the years ahead.

There isn’t any indication that November storms are occurring more frequently or have become stronger, with many notable powerful hurricanes in the Atlantic basin over the past decades and centuries.

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