Florida’s tricky fireworks forecast

Every July Fourth, eyes turn to the skies to see if the rain and storms will clear in time for the local fireworks. But forecasting whether fireworks will happen in Florida is very difficult.

We start with why it’s so hard to forecast.

During the rainy season in Florida, a ridge of high pressure develops in the Atlantic. This ridge doesn’t allow cold fronts to enter central Florida, resulting in the pesky high humidity we’re known for.

With cold fronts out of the picture, the lifting mechanism for rain and storms are daily sea breezes. These wind shifts develop during the day and push inland from both the Gulf and Atlantic coasts.

The sea breezes help lift the atmosphere, producing the scattered showers and storms.

Our weather pattern is an easterly flow. This means the east coast, or Atlantic, sea breeze is a bit more dominant and produces the bulk of the showers and storms.

But as rain and storms march inland, things change. Boundaries inside the storms begin to develop, sometimes overriding the sea breeze itself.

These boundaries often spread out and go in multiple directions. The boundaries often move opposite of the storm’s direction, allow rain and storms to “spread out” over an area.

Unfortunately, this often happens in the mid-evening hours, right when many fireworks shows are starting.

So this year, who has the best chance for dry and storm-free conditions? Coastal areas.

With the easterly flow, the highest chance for rain and storms will be west of I-95 during the fireworks time.

This means it may be harder for inland areas, including Metro Orlando and the attractions, to get the fireworks off at the scheduled start time.

But this doesn’t mean it can’t storm along the coast. Sometimes rain and storms will pivot back toward the I-95 corridor, especially in the mid-to-late evening hours.

So, bring your umbrella and be prepared for a possible delay as rainy season can often mean trouble for fireworks displays.