Earl has formed in the Atlantic Basin, making it the fifth named storm of the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season. It formed Friday night on Sept. 2 as a tropical storm east of the northern Leeward Islands.
Earl’s center is forecasted to pass through the northern Leeward Islands on Saturday and then the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Saturday night into Sunday.
The storm has maximum winds of 40 mph and the storm might strengthen over the next few days.
We expect the tropical storm to bring heavy rain over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through the weekend.
Computer model guidance tracks it north of the Leeward Islands, but it could lead to some heavy rain in that region. Earl should curve back north before it gets close to the East Coast.
Spaghetti models or plots show a series of individual computer forecast models together on one map. They are useful to give insight into whether multiple models are in agreement on the path of the storm but they do not address the storm’s forecast intensity, winds, flooding and storm surge potential or other data. Tap here for more details on how to best use these models.
There are some other areas being monitored across the Atlantic for potential development. You can see those here.
See how the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season has gone so far.